The University of Edinburgh -
Division of Informatics
Forrest Hill & 80 South Bridge

MSc Thesis #9923

Title:Fuzzy Rule Induction Based Financial Forecasting
Date: 1999
Abstract:The past decade has witnessed significant growth in tools originating in the AI community being incorporated into the field of financial engineering. Expert Systems were quickly shown to be inadequate for the tasks required in financial forecasting due to their static nature. As a result, interest started to move towards non-symbolic AI despite the fact that comprehensibility is often of paramount concern in financial forecasting. Merging the domains of fuzzy logic and rule induction however, paved the way for the emergence of successful generalisation techniques with high comprehensibility. This project is thus concerned with the novel use of fuzzy rule induction techniques (and in particular FAPACS) to implement an evolving rule based expert system. In such a way, changing market dynamics are continuously taken into consideration as time progresses and the rulebase thus does not become outdated.

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