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Bayes' Theorem

The Bayes' rule allows us to modify our knowledge about a system/process using both the historical information and the current data according to the following rule:

 

where the density function characterizes the prior information about the parameters of the process, represents the likelihood of observing the data given , and is the updated knowledge about based on both the prior and the sensed data. The involved parameters are often estimated by minimizing a risk function which depends on a prespecified loss function and the posterior distribution. A commonly used 0-1 loss function results in an estimate of which maximizes the posteriori distribution , which is the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) solution.



Bob Fisher
Wed May 5 18:16:24 BST 1999